How Would Iran Retaliate After An Israeli Military Strike On Its Nuclear Sites?

By Yossi Melman

The Washington Institute for Near East Policy just published a new report: Beyond Worst-Case Analysis: Iran’s Likely Responses to an Israeli Preventive Strike by Michael Eisenstadt and Michael Knights.

http://www.washingtoninstitute.org/uploads/Documents/pubs/PolicyNote11.pdf

israel spy, iran nuclear, spies against armageddonThe authors conclude: “An Israeli preventive strike on Iran’s nuclear infrastructure would likely prompt a harsh riposte against Israeli and Jewish targets overseas. Tehran might also launch limited attacks against U.S. interests in order to deter intervention on Israel’s behalf—and therein lies the potential for unintended escalation.  Moreover, they argue Hizballah could cause grievous harm to Israeli civilian targets with its reported inventory of fifty thousand rockets, and the group’s assistance could greatly enhance Tehran’s ability to launch terrorist attacks on Israeli and U.S. targets around the world (though Israel has thwarted several such efforts in recent years).”

In our new book, Spies Against Armageddon, published June 15th,we’ll discuss the likelihood of an Israeli strike – certainly not before the United States election this November – and what the Iranian response might be.  Our reporting led to analyses and estimates made by Israeli military and intelligence chiefs about such a scenario.

Only last week some of these senior security officials expressed their views in public during a two-day conference by the Institute of National Security Studies, close to Tel Aviv University.  Two of the retired officials, former Chief of Staff General Gabi Ashkenazi and former head of Aman (military intelligence) General Amos Yadlin, said that there is a lot of “exaggeration” about the potential Iranian retaliation and the damage it would cause inside Israel. On the other hand, former head of the Mossad Meir Dagan expressed his firmly held estimate that an Israeli strike against Iran would cause an uncontrollable blow-up and an unpredictably ugly, dangerous regional war.

 

June 5, 2012

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